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Weekly Economic and Stock Market Commentary – June 12, 2023


June 13

Note: The US investment markets, and my office, will be closed Monday, June 19th for the Juneteenth holiday. Normal operations resume Tuesday, June 20th.

As for the stock market specifically:

The markets continued their gains last week. What I liked was not so much the magnitude of the movement, but the breadth of the action. In military terms, the privates returned to the battlefield that only generals occupied for quite a long time. If the broadening continues, I’d view that as a very positive action.

Over the past six weeks, I’ve commented about how few stocks are carrying the load of market gains but said I would not (could not – a compliance thing) do the attribution analysis. Goldman Sachs published an excellent chart illustrating this. If you’d like me to email it to you, just let me know.

This week we have our quarterly quadruple witching. Normally these weeks have more volatility than normal. Volatility has dropped off recently. Lowered volatility often accompanies an orderly market.

Market conditions have improved (speaking to offense) within most-all of my indicators: Short-term, Intermediate-term and even some Long-term. Coupled with the broaden-out I spoke of above, things look pretty good. My only worry is that we are now entering summer, and history tells us that summers “tend” to be difficult.

The bullish percent risk indicators rose nicely last week. In fact, all the risk-assessing bullish percent indicators moved to offense. We now recommend WEALTH ACCUMULATION strategies.

Remember, X’s mean OFFENSE or wealth accumulation, while O’s mean DEFENSE, or wealth preservation.

Below is where our indicators stand as of June 9, 2023 (Courtesy Dorsey, Wright, and Associates).

On a general note:

No noteworthy economic releases made it to my inbox.  We have a vacation for this section this week.

If you want more information or have any questions, please contact me.