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Weekly Economic and Stock Market Commentary – November 20, 2023

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Note: The US financial markets will be closed Thursday, November 23rd for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Markets will re-open Friday, November 24th, but will close at 1PM that day. Normal operations resume Monday, November 27th.

As for the stock market specifically:

Let’s start off with the cheap metaphor. The bears slept another week, and let’s hope that they are settling into winter hibernation. Markets here and around the world rose nicely last week supposedly on welcome news regarding inflation.

Today I heard a list of topics of “Least Wanted to Discuss Around the Thanksgiving Dinner Table.” I believe one topic that should be on the list, but was not, is “What will the Federal Reserve Do About Interest Rates?” It appears that is the sole subject of discussion on business news shows and has been a well-promoted topic since the 1990s (Yes, the 1990’s).

That conversation is becoming as trite as the July conversation on sports news regarding the upcoming football season – “Who do you think will win the Super Bowl?”

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I will keep my comments short.

Market action is looking good. Field position continued to improve last week, and the OTC Bullish Percent Indicator turned positive. I am seeing more strength in trend and relative strength tools, too. WEALTH ACCUMULATION is in-force in all areas.

Remember, Xs means OFFENSE or wealth accumulation, while Os means DEFENSE or wealth preservation.

Below is where our indicators stand as of November 17, 2023 (Courtesy Dorsey, Wright, and Associates).

On a general note:

The Department of Labor announced that the October Consumer Price Index was unchanged compared to September. The one-year change was 4.0%. Both numbers were less than the consensus estimate of economists.

The Commerce Department said the American consumer was active in October. October retail sales were up 3.2% compared to October 2022, and up 0.3% from September 2023. These numbers were above expectations. In fact, many economists expected retail sales to fall.

I said I would keep it short, I wish everyone a Happy and Healthy Thanksgiving! And please contact me if you have any questions.