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Weekly Economic and Stock Market Commentary – November 30, 2020


As for the stock market specifically: Let’s start off unabashedly with a cheap metaphor.  The bulls feasted on turkey not only last week, but for the month of November.  The bears spent the month in hibernation.

Today concludes what appears to be (it could change by the time I hit “Send” Tuesday morning) the best November in the stock market since November 1928.  Let’s hope that next year is not another 1929, and that we don’t get any discussion along the lines “that the stock market is on a permanently high plateau,” as President-elect Herbert Hoover was attributed as saying.
Here is something that will strike many as very strange.
The stock market, as defined by the S & P 500 (not the DOW), is having a normal year.  You can laugh all you want, but statistically speaking, a 12% gain is the historical average going back more than 90 years.  The path this year has been anything but normal, as we know.  2020 has also been kind enough to add many gray hairs to my noggin.

The bullish percent indicators continued driving higher (or drive deeper into the red zone) last week.  Each gained at least 3 percentage points, and the OTC Bullish Percent reached its red zone, too.  We will continue with WEALTH ACCUMULATION strategies.

Remember, Xs mean OFFENSE or wealth accumulation, while Os mean DEFENSE, or wealth preservation.

Below is where our indicators stand as of November 27, 2020 (Courtesy Dorsey, Wright, and Associates).
On a general note: The S & P Core-Logic Case-Schiller Home Price Index for September came out last week.  This number showed that home prices continued with strong gains during the month.  The 20-city measurement showed a gain of 6.6% in home prices compared to a 5.3% gain for September.  Both are compared to the same month in 2019.  The nationwide index showed a gain 7%.  That was the largest gain since 2014.
As always, if you want more information, email me at philip.rongo@ibexwealth.com.